Historica Olomucensia 1 (2025), 87-111 | DOI: 10.5507/ho.2025.011

Process Tracing as a Method of Historical Systematization: Modeling Power Centralization During the COVID-19 Pandemic

David Broul
Department of Politics and European Studies at Palacký University Olomouc

This article explores the methodological potential of process tracing (PT) within comparative-historical analysis, emphasizing its compatibility with historically grounded research. PT allows for systematic reconstruction of causal mechanisms by identifying temporally ordered, theory-driven sequences that link causes to outcomes within specific cases. Rather than replacing narrative approaches, PT complements them by enhancing analytical transparency and causal inference. The study demonstrates the practical application of PT through a comparative analysis of executive power centralization efforts during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Despite similar contextual triggers, the outcomes diverged significantly. Hungary and Poland witnessed substantial executive aggrandizement, while the Czech Republic did not. The article applies a theory-testing PT design to reconstruct the causal process behind this divergence, identifying key institutional safeguards – most notably independent media and constitutional courts – together with the factor of a government majority as active elements in the causal chain. The findings highlight PT’s value in isolating causal dynamics in complex historical contexts.

Keywords: Process tracing; Causal mechanisms; Comparative-historical analysis; Democratic backsliding; Executive power; COVID-19 pandemic; Institutional safeguards; Central and Eastern Europe

Received: January 31, 2025; Revised: August 7, 2025; Accepted: September 18, 2025; Published: December 2, 2025  Show citation

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Broul, D. (2025). Process Tracing as a Method of Historical Systematization: Modeling Power Centralization During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Historica Olomucensia, 66(1), 87-111. doi: 10.5507/ho.2025.011
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